Simulation analysis of domestic water demand and its future uncertainty in water scarce areas

This paper demonstrates a practical simulation approach to analyze domestic water demand and its future uncertainty in water scarce areas through a case study of Beijing, China. Analytic models and a forecasting model were constructed using statistic and econometric regression approaches. The analytic models were used to analyze the interrelationships between domestic water demand and some socio-economic factors of Beijing. The forecasting model was applied to predict domestic water demand from 2009 to 2015, and this model was validated by comparing the prediction values with the observations. Scenario analysis was applied to simulate uncertainty and risks in domestic water demand in the future. The simulation results proved that domestic water demand will increase from 13.9 10 m to 16.7 10 m from 2009 to 2015. Three more sustainable strategies were also found through scenario analysis. The simulation and modeling approaches and results would be very supportive for water decision makers in allocating water efficiently and making sustainable water strategies.